基于代理模型的缝内支撑剂铺置形态高效预测方法

An efficient method for predicting the morphology of proppant packs based on a surrogate model

  • 摘要: 非常规油气储层体积压裂中,大量支撑剂颗粒随压裂液注入地层裂缝,其在缝内的铺置形态将决定裂缝支撑效果和导流能力. 准确预测缝内支撑剂铺置形态有助于优化压裂设计、提升改造效率. 实验模拟和数值模拟是当前复现缝内支撑剂堆积过程和铺置形态的主要手段,但仍存在模拟尺度小、模拟耗时长和操作成本高等局限. 本文以支撑剂输送数值模拟结果为数据集,提取了表征支撑剂铺置堆积的特征参数,基于级联神经网络,建立了支撑剂铺置形态预测的智能代理模型. 结果表明,代理模型预测结果与数值模拟结果高度吻合,单步预测耗时仅为单步模拟耗时的0.14%. 本文提出的模型和方法可实现支撑剂输送仿真加速,极大地缩短了支撑剂铺置形态的预测时间,其进一步完善后将在压裂实践中具有广泛的应用前景.

     

    Abstract: In the volume fracturing of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs, many proppant particles are injected underground along with the fracturing fluid, and their placement patterns determine the propping effect and conductivity of fractures. Accurate prediction of the in-fracture proppant placement patterns can help optimize the fracturing design and improve fracturing efficiency. Currently, experimental and numerical methods are the main approaches for reproducing the proppant accumulation process and placement patterns in fractures. These methods are still confined by limited simulation scales, time-consuming computations, and high-cost operations. In this paper, the two-fluid method was employed for numerical simulations, with a primary focus on the effects of drag, virtual mass, and lift forces on the momentum exchange between phases. The numerical simulations were conducted on the Fluent platform, and the simulation results were validated against experimental data to ensure reliability and accuracy. The numerical simulation results of proppant transport would be adopted as data sets for input, training, and testing. To characterize the intricate accumulation and packing dynamics of proppants, we distilled key parameters, specifically the concentration distribution and accumulation height profiles. Through correlation analysis, the primary factors influencing these characteristic parameters were identified. Intelligent proxy models for the prediction of proppant placement patterns were established on the basis of the cascade neural network, including a time-concentration model for predicting particle volume fraction and a displacement-height model for predicting particle placement height. The former model enabled predictions of the distribution of proppant concentrations within the fracture at different times, whereas the latter allowed estimation of how the stacking heights of proppants varied with the injection rate. Furthermore, the grid precisions of the prediction models were optimized to enhance their accuracy and performance. The data were allocated to the training, validation, and testing phases of the surrogate model at a ratio of 6∶2∶2, respectively. Specifically, 60% of the data was used for training the models, 20% was used for validation to fine-tune the models’ parameters, and another 20% was used for testing to evaluate the models’ performance on unseen data. The results showed that the predictions of proppant placement patterns were highly consistent with the numerical simulation results. For the time-concentration model, the prediction results were closely aligned with the numerical simulation outcomes, successfully capturing the characteristics of a constant placement height and a progressive increase in placement length after reaching the equilibrium height. For the displacement-height model, although the predicted placement profile lacked detailed irregularities of the proppant accumulation surface because of model simplification, it accurately described the characteristic variation in placement morphology with changes in injection rate, demonstrating that the surrogate model for predicting particle placement height can also efficiently capture the proppant placement morphology within the fracture. Additionally, the time consumed by a single prediction step was only 0.14% of the time consumed by a single simulation step. The model and approach proposed in this study accelerated the speed of proppant transport simulation and greatly shortened the prediction time of the proppant placement patterns, which could be widely applied in fracturing in the field after further improvement.

     

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